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Status of R-ARCSS Implementation During the 14 Months Months of Pre-Transitional Period.

Abstract: This report presents some findings and arguments on the 14 months of the pre-transitional period for implementing the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The 14 months of the pre-transitional period were unable to deliver the intended outcomes that were designed under the (R-ARCSS). It has evidently been proved that several factors, including the inadequate and untimely release of funds; lack of trust and confidence among the top leadership of the parties towards working together; lack of political will and politics of bad faith, largely contributed to the slow execution of the pre-transitional tasks.  Regionally, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) lacked an institutional establishment at its technical headquarter level for coordinating efforts between various institutions and mechanism tasked to deliver the pre-transitional tasks. Additionally, the African Union (AU) established adhoc committee that comprises of South Africa, Rwanda, Chad, Nigeria and Algeria has been ineffective in its role of complementing IGAD’s efforts for genuine implementation of the (R-ARCSS) during the pre-transitional period. Therefore, any way forward on the fate of the November 12, 2019 deadline or any decision from any party should focus on the gaining political consensus among the parties’ signatories to the (R-ARCSS).

  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The 14 months of pre-transitional period was evidently witnessed by the high level of deficit in trust and confidence among the top leadership of parties that signed the R-ARCSS on September 12, 2018.  The slow performance of the parties in delivering the intended tasks of the pre-transitional period was a clear indicator of the lack of good faith politics and political will among the top leadership of the parties to the R-ARCSS. One of the key factors to be avoided is the formation of an exclusive government without the genuine trust and confidence among the top leadership of parties’ signatories to the R-ARCSS. Formation of any exclusive government has many negative implications on the fate of genuine implementation of the R-ARCSS.  Currently, the key deadlocks before the parties that require their compromises for breakthrough are;

  1. Adequate funding for pending issues in the security arrangements
  2. Resolving the issue of boundaries and the numbers of states through a political decision
  3. Enactment of amendments of five security laws before formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity      
  4. Incorporation of the R-ARCSS into the Transitional Constitution 2011 amended in 2015 before the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity   
  5. Genuine distribution of ministerial portfolios and allocation of states among the parties

The deadlocks before the parties’ signatory to the R-ARCSS are matters that require demonstration of political will and good faith politics from the top leadership of the parties’. The top leaders of the parties can only resolve these deadlocks by doing the following;

  1. Increase interaction/dialogues on seeking possible compromise solution on the outstanding issues
  2. Abolish the language of imposing pre-conditions and threats 
  3. Prioritize adequate and timely funding of outstanding issues in the R-ARCSS
  4. Improve external relations through embracing dialogue  

 

Regionally, IGAD should improve its approach for handling the R-ARCSS implementation. Among the key improvements required are;

  1. Establishing a unit for handling South Sudan peace agreement implementation at headquarter level. The unit should focus on strengthening coordination of various efforts on R-ARCSS implementation
  2. The IGAD Special Envoy to South Sudan should approach behind the scene issues with full respect to the principle of inclusivity       

On the other hand, AU ad hoc committee should step up its role of complementing IGAD’s role in the implementation of the R-ARCSS.

Finally, there is a clear dilemma on the fate of the formation of Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity on November 12, 2019. The increases in the parties’ attitudes to give pre-conditions are potential indicators may call for more extension of the pre-transitional period. Lack of trust and confidence among the parties makes it hard to reach a political consensus and compromise.

  1. INTENDED TASKS TO BE DELIVERED BEFORE 12TH NOVEMBER 2019 (14 MONTHS OF THE PRE-TRANSITIONAL PERIOD)

SECURITY TASKS

Status of deliverance 

POLITICAL TASKS

Status of deliverance 

Reconstituting Disarmament and Demobilization and Reintegration Commission (DDRC)

Accomplished

Incorporation of R-ARCSS into the Transitional Constitution 2011 amended 2015 

Not accomplished

Reviewing the five security laws, namely SPLA Act, National Security Service Act, Police Service Act, Wildlife Act, Prison Service Act and Fire Brigade Bill

Accomplished

Enacting the proposed amendments on the five security laws namely, SPLA Act, National Security Service Act, Police Service Act, Wildlife Act, Prison Service Act and Fire Bridge Bill

Not accomplished

Cantoning and barracking forces

Accomplished

Resolving the issue of boundaries and number of States 

Not accomplished

Forces vacating civilians sites

Partial accomplished but new occupation is taking place

Rebuilding Trust and Confidence

Partially accomplished

Developing Unified Necessary forces training curriculum(Instructors and Trainee curriculums) 

Accomplished

Distributing responsibility sharing at national, state and local government levels

Not accomplished

Training and graduation of instructors for training the unified necessary forces 

Accomplished

Prohibition of hate speech and hostile propaganda

Partially accomplished

Screening and registration of forces 

Partially accomplished

Political Parties disseminating the R-ARCSS to their constituents and citizens

Partially accomplished (with the support of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan)  

Formation of the VIP Protection Unit (Trained and redeployed

Partially accomplished

 

 

Collection of light and heavy weaponry

Not accomplished

 

 

Training and redeploying unified necessary forces

Not accomplished

 

 

  1. UPDATES ON THE STATUS OF THE REVITALIZED AGREEMENT ON THE RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT IN SOUTH SUDAN IMPLEMENTATION AND PERFORMANCE OF ACTORS

Thematic task

Details action on  the task

Status of implementation

Identified issues  

Suggestions for way forward

 

 

CHAPTER 1:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

REVITALIZED TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY –GOVERNANCE  

Incorporation of the R-ARCSS into Transitional Constitution, 2011 Amended, 2015

Reasonable - compliance

The draft of the constitutional bill is before the Transitional National Legislative Assembly and it seems parliament  is reluctant to pass it

The Transitional National Legislative Assembly Parliament should take action on R-ARCSS incorporation into the Transitional Constitutional , 2011, amended 2015 before  November 12, 2019    

Amendment of the five security laws namely Police Services Act, SPLA Act, National Security Services Act, Prison Services Act, Wildlife Act, Fire Bridge Bill, 2019 

Reasonable -compliance

The Transitional National Legislative Assembly Parliament is reluctant to act on this matter

The Transitional National Legislative Assembly should take action on amendments of the five security laws before it   

 

 

 

 

Implementation of the affirmative action of at least 35% for women at institutions and mechanism for the R-ARCSS implementation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-compliance

R-ARCSS implementation mechanisms  namely RJMEC,CTSAMVM, NCAC, SDSRB, JDB, JMCC & JTSC failed to meet the threshold of 35% for women

The mechanisms for the implementation of R-ARCSS leadership should insist on parties to meet the threshold of 35% for women during their members appointment to any mechanism

R-ARCSS implementation institutions under National Pre-Transitional Committee (NPTC) including  NPTC secretariat failed to meet the threshold of at least 35% for women

The institutions (under NPTC and NPTC secretariat) for the implementation of R-ARCSS leadership should review for the parties to meet the threshold of at least 35% for women during their members appointment to any mechanism

Resolution of the boundaries and number of the states

Non-Compliance

Absence of consensus and compromises among the parties to R-ARCSS

The issues of the boundaries and number of states is totally a political issue that requires political decision with consensus among the parties’ signatories to R-ARCSS.

The issue of the boundaries and number of the states needs to be handle with extra-care and wisdom among the political elites. It is a politically emotional issue     

 

 

CHAPTER 2

 

 

 

 

 

PERMANENT CEASEFIRE AND TRANSITIONAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENT 

Observing Ceasefire 

Compliance 

The military leadership of parties signatories to R-ARCSS demonstrated genuine responsibility for making their forces  obey the ceasefire

The military leadership should be encouraged to keep the spirit of compliance with the ceasefire 

Vacation of occupied civilians sites by the parties forces  

Slow-compliance

The military leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS should get their forces away from occupying the civilians sites

Vacating civilians sites occupied by the parties forces should be embrace because it increase civilian trust and confidence on R-ARCSS 

 

 

 

Cantoning and barracking of forces

 

 

 

 

Reasonable-Compliance 

The process of cantoning and barracking forces is moving on well but very slow and behind expected schedule

Still some compliance are required for forces to report to some of cantonment sites and barracks

The great challenge before the cantoned and barracked forces is inadequate social services such as proper shelter, food, drinking water and medical care   

Prioritizing social services of the forces in cantonment sites and barracks should be taken seriously by the political leadership because chances of the forces turning to get food by force from civilian sites is high

Screening/registration of forces in cantonment sites and barracks

Compliance

68,000 troops are successfully registered for the process of creating unified forces

The registration of the forces has to undergone proper due diligence process 

Training of necessary unified forces instructors

Compliance

The graduated instructors for the training of the necessary unified forces was welcomed

Catering for the needs/services of the instructors for the training of the necessary unified forces should be taken seriously by the political leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS   

Establishing VIP protection unit

Reasonable-Compliance 

On-going preparations for making the VIP protection unit functional is reasonable

Political leadership of the parties is required to provide political will for VIP protection unit to operationalize and act independently from political influence

Training of necessary unified forces (41,000 out of 83,000) including redeployment of the trained necessary unified forces

Non-Compliances

The training and redeployment of the 41,000 forces may need at least 45 days of effective training before redeployment

Parties should get together for reaching political consensus on the of training and redeployment of the 41,000 forces

Prohibition of hate speech

Reasonable-Compliance

The spread of hate speech among the leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS has reduced, but remains high among their supporters

The  top leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS should take the responsibility of warning supporters of their parties about the dangers of hate speech

Prohibition of hostile propaganda

Inadequate-Compliance

 The issue of hostile propaganda among some leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS still exist, mainly in the form of threatening and pre-conditioning political opponents

The top leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS should be mindful of the language they speak in public    on the  implementation of R-ARCSS  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IGAD –TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

IGAD Technical Directorate/unit based in headquarter 

 

 

 

 

Inadequate-compliance 

Absence of specifically assigned technical unit at IGAD headquarters to handle South Sudan cases as coordinating body between the IGAD Special Envoy, RJMEC, IGAD Executive Secretary for influencing IGAD Council of Ministers and Head of State and Government summit    

IGAD Headquarter leadership should agree to establish ad hoc unit for handling South Sudan filed. The main purpose of the unit is to strengthen coordination on the R-ARCSS implementation process with various actors including help IGAD Special Envoy with behind the scene  engagement with South Sudanese parties     

IGAD-SPECIAL ENVOY TO SOUTH SUDAN

Influencing parties to Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan

Reasonable- Compliance 

No effective engagement with the parties behind the scene

IGAD Special Envoy to South Sudan should opt to engage on behind the scene with the parties signatories and non-signatories to R-ARCSS as an effective approach for making peace and stability prevail in South Sudan 

 

IGAD R-ARCSS GUARANTORS 

Sudan Performance

Compliance

Sudan as R-ARCSS guarantor was effective

Sudan current leadership should be pro-active on R-ARCSS implementation because success of R-ARCSS have mutual benefit for both sisterly countries  

Uganda Performance

Compliance

Uganda leadership attempt for resolving the power struggle within the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) was creditable

Uganda leadership should attempt to take the stand of being neutral as guarantor because peaceful South Sudan benefits all and violent South Sudan hurt all

 

 

 

 

 

AFRICAN UNION ad hoc COMMITTEE

South Africa Performance

Reasonable-Compliance 

Increase in Pro-activeness is required  

Embracing African Union complementary role in R-ARCSS implementation is paramount 

Nigeria Performance

Reasonable-Compliance 

Increase in Pro-activeness  is required  

Embracing African Union complementary role in R-ARCSS implementation is paramount 

Algeria Performance

Bouncing-Compliance

Increase in Pro-activeness  is required  

Embracing African Union complementary role in R-ARCSS implementation is paramount 

Rwanda Performance

Reasonable-Compliance 

Increase in Pro-activeness  is required  

Embracing African Union complementary role in R-ARCSS implementation is paramount 

Chad Performance

Non-Compliance

Inactiveness of Chad is discouraging  

Newal of pledge for complementing IGAD efforts is required from Chad 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TROIKA GROUP

USA Performance

Reasonable-Compliance 

Appointing Special Envoy to South Sudan is critical

Congress pro-activeness on South Sudan is determine by the engagement of the Special Envoy as horizontal actor

Absence of USA special envoy to South Sudan is a strategic mistake that requires to be resolve immediately

UK Performance

Compliance

Having Special Envoy appointed was remarkable

Keeping the Special Envoy pro-active on South Sudan should be embrace. Further the special envoy should get the UK leadership get pro-active on South Sudan  

Norway Performance

Compliance

Having Special Envoy appointed was remarkable

Keeping the Special Envoy pro-active on South Sudan should be embraced. Furthermore, the special envoy should get the  Norwegian leadership more pro-active on South Sudan 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IGAD PARTNERS FORUM

Canada

Reasonable-Compliance

More efforts needed

Making the IGAD Partners forum more pro-active is essential

Japan

Compliance

The on-going support for R-ARCSS is impressive

Promote transparency and accountability on use of funds for implementation of R-ARCSS

Russia

Bouncing-Compliance

Sense of taking responsibility for securing global peace is required

Support genuine implementation of peace agreement should treat as global responsibility under the concept of global responsibility to protect

China

Compliance

The on-going support for R-ARCSS is impressive

Promote transparency and accountable on use of support for the implementation of R-ARCSS

European Union plus its member states 

Compliance

The on-going support for R-ARCSS is impressive

Promote transparency and accountable on use of support for the implementation of R-ARCSS

          

  1. KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
    1. FOR SOUTH SUDAN PARTIES
  1. There is need for an urgent face-to-face meeting of the top leadership of parties to the R-ARCSS on the fate of the November 12, 2019 deadline
  2. The top leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS should take primary responsibility on compliance with November 12, 2019 deadline, through consensual political decisions
  3. Avoid the language of pre-conditions and act more on delivering the pending tasks of the pre-transitional period
  4. There is need to operationalize the established committee by the parties on finding a solution on the issue of boundaries and number of the states
  5. There is need to consider the option of using the 79 counties as a last resort for resolving the matter of the boundaries and number of states   
  6. There is need for the Transitional National Legislative Assembly to deliver the incorporation of the R-ARCSS into the Transitional Constitution 2011 amended 2015, including the timely enactment of five reviewed security laws
  7. There is need for the parties to enforce the affirmative action of at least 35% for women without any compromises
  8. There is need to resolve the issue of children and women presence in the cantonment sites and barracks –this is humanitarian issue that requires urgent intervention     
  9. There is need to have trust and confidence for moving forward through embracing political consensus and compromises on outstanding issues
  10. There is need for the top leadership of the parties to avail good faith politics and political will for expediting the pending tasks of the pre-transitional period
  11. Adequate and timely release of funds for accomplishing the pre-transitional tasks in a transparent manner is required

 

  1. IGAD AND IGAD SPECIAL ENVOY
  1. IGAD headquarters should establish a unit for handling South Sudan file with stronger terms of references, focusing on coordinating actors inter-linkages on R-ARCSS implementation
  2. IGAD Special Envoy to South Sudan should engage in handling some of the issues through the approach of behind the scene but this should not compromise with the principle of inclusive
  3. IGAD should hold urgent face-to-face meeting of the top leadership of the parties to R-ARCSS
    1. AFRICAN UNION ad hoc COMMITTEE (AU C-5)
  1. There need to strengthen the engagement of AUC-5 with clear terms of reference on complementing IGAD in implementing the R-ARCSS
  2. AUC-5 should keep African Union Peace and Security Council engaged on South Sudan
    1. IGAD R-ARCSS GUARANTORS 
  1. The R-ARCSS guarantors should double their efforts in fostering trust and confidence among the top leadership of the parties
  2. Guarantors of the R-ARCSS like IGAD should be more effective and action-oriented by ensuring its headquarters has an established unit for handling South Sudan coordination
    1. SOUTH SUDAN FRIENDS
  1. There is need to continue supporting South Sudan’s efforts for making peace happen
  2. The United States of American (USA), as Troika group member, should appoint a Special Envoy to South Sudan to foster proper engagement on South Sudan political transitioning 
  3. There is need for friends of South Sudan to deal with R-ARCSS issues, such as double standards
  1. CEPO’S ROLE:

It will mostly engage in advocacy and lobby with the parties signatory to the R-ARCSS. CEPO will also take effective roles to engage the parties on the principle of no return to war and take the primary responsibility for genuine implementation of the R-ARCSS, which is the cornerstone of our lobbying and advocacy work. 

Further, CEPO will be effectively engage in fostering the genuine enforcement of the affirmative action of at least 35% for women agreed upon by all the parties that signed the R-ARCSS.

  1. CONCLUSION

It not yet too late and it will not be too late. Change of political attitudes and behaviors from that of no compromise and consensus to attitudes and behaviors of making compromises and consensus for the ultimate objective of making the R-ARCSS implementation genuine and accepted compliant with the November 12, 2019 when an Inclusive Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity is formed. Trading for the fate of 12th November 2019 through political consensus should be the primary objective of the parties.

Mature politicking is always described by the values of tolerance, patience, consensus and compromise that placed the best national interest of the citizens first. The parties’ signatories to the R-ARCSS have the primary responsibility for using the peace accord as an instrument of regaining the broken social fabric among the communities of South Sudan. This must be now, not tomorrow.