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South Sudan is part of Climate Outlook Bulletin released by IGAD climate and application Centre.

By: Khamis Cosmas Lokudu

CEPO Media and Communication Manager.

IGAD climate prediction and application Centre have issued its bulletin following the fiftieth greater Horn of Africa climate Outlook (GHACOF50) held in Rwanda last month, the released bulletin explains that wetter conditions are expected over much of the equatorial sectors. The northern and southern sectors are likely to have normal to above normal rainfall. Warmer temperatures are predicted over the most parts while cooler than normal temperatures is anticipated in eastern sectors of the region.  The released climate bulletin by IGAD climate prediction and application centre provided that consensus seasonal climate outlook for the next three months for guidance to reduce climate-related risks in support of key socioeconomic sectors and resilience building for sustainable development

The IGAD bulletin on climate outlook predicted that Zone 1 which is South Sudan, the weather will be favourable for second season of crop performance (green belt) roots and cereals. Second season land preparation and planting is on-going reduce impacts of FEW as the rainfall progresses. The early planting of second season crops with support from the government and NGOs will likely improve crop production, food insecurity as more crops will be harvested. However increased conflict between farming and pastoralist communities due to early return of livestock and plenty of weeds are expected and farm labor force will be low.

The most cross border of South Sudan like Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda together Somali, Kenya and Ethiopia will likely have delayed start of the rains according to the climate outlook bulletin released by IGAD climate and application centre says that this month.  IGAD / ICPCA used climate analogues to identify areas that experiences statistically similar conditions but which may be separated temporally.

In Zone II where South Sudan is inclusive the bulletin reads that the country is mostly wheat growing areas, rangeland, pastures and wild life and commercial pasture growth as well, therefore; enough water should be provided to reduce human, livestock / wildlife conflict in the country if such not done the likely scenarios in case of floods may include displacement of people resulting into loss of lives and livelihoods may cause effect on Maize production.

For agricultural mitigation measures according to the released bulletin of climate outlook in Zone II where South Sudan is also part following the prediction by IGAD / ICPAC, South Sudan government is advised to work very hard to resolve the conflicts between the farmers and herders by addressing the insecurity to enforce farmers return to the farmlands.

For Zone II  South Sudan and Sudan already has agreement with DALCO company to combat the infestation of the birds and the government will work with NGOs to control livestock and crop disease by providing extensions services, earlier preposition of food and air drops precautions. And Kenya will support the education to livestock keepers to keep only a reasonable livestock can be managed and measure will be taken to reduce post –harvest losses according the bulleting released early this month by IGAD climate and application centre (ICPAC).

For South Sudan according to climate prediction bulletin released early Month the implication of October to December 2018 seasonal rainfall and the temperature forecast on the health especial suitability of Malaria outbreaks and other vector and water borne diseases like Diarrhoea, Hepatitis E virus and cholera, these types of diseases are expected to during the starting from next month until the end of the year.

“ Finally the IGAD climate prediction and application Centre has proposed some key recommendation to the government of South Sudan, Non-governmental organizations and International organizations  working in the area of health to prepare early response which include the following, distribution of Mosquito net  during the season of October to December 2018 and community on-site testing and treatment,   Case management of malaria outbreak,   expecting to do IRS, especially for IDP camps in the Protection of Civilians Site. Increase community awareness program on Diahorea and oral rehydration, distribution of chlorine water and filters, laundry soaps, there should Community awareness programs for Hepatitis E and provision of safe water to the community. There should be  Community awareness program on cholera and hygiene, distribution of chlorinated water to the community, Clinical and lab tests on suspected cases consistent with malaria, respond to treatment with ACTs and RDT and ACTs states Hub”